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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo drops back to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo drops back to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

The San Francisco 49ers (11-2) were not one of the preseason favorites in the Super Bowl futures market, but their consistently brilliant play has elevated them to second choice, behind only the Baltimore Ravens. The Niners’ Super Bowl odds went from +750 Friday to +450 as of Tuesday morning. We’ll dig into San Francisco’s résumé below to determine if the 49ers are worth a wager.

Odds to win the Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens +230
San Francisco 49ers +450
New England Patriots +485
New Orleans Saints +600
Kansas City Chiefs +650
Kyle Shanahan’s crew survived the most brutal part of its regular-season schedule, with a loss on a last-second field goal in Baltimore before returning the favor against the Saints in a 48-46 barnburner Sunday. The 49ers’ only other loss was a 27-24 overtime defeat against the Seahawks in Week 10.

49ers win a wild shootout over the Saints in the Superdome 48-46
Robbie Gould : 2/2 FG’s (Game-winning 30-yard FG as time expired) pic.twitter.com/NMpUOtz3O8

— Lee Harvey (@AyeThatsLee) December 8, 2019

Clinching the NFC West won’t be easy
San Francisco will host the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams, before a trip to Seattle in a quest for vengeance against the Seahawks. Even if the 49ers win both home games, they will probably need to defeat Russell Wilson and company in Week 17 to clinch the NFC West, as the Seahawks will face the Panthers and Cardinals before that final regular-season tilt. It’s anything but a given that San Francisco will run the table, and having to play a wild-card game could severely damage its chances of making it to the Super Bowl.

The Niners are banged up
The Niners could desperately use a week off, but their bye occurred all the way back in Week 4. They’ve had some bad luck in the injury department, with center Weston Richburg’s season-ending torn patellar tendon injury just the latest blow to their squad. Cornerback Richard Sherman and defensive end Dee Ford could both miss multiple games with hamstring injuries after they left Sunday’s game in New Orleans early, per USA Today.

Rundown of #49ers injuries:

*DE Dee Ford: Expected to miss at least 3 weeks w/ hamstring injury.

*CB Richard Sherman: Expected to miss couple of weeks w/ hamstring strain.

*C Weston Richburg: Out for season w/ torn patella tendon

*CB K’Waun Williams: In concussion protocol

— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 9, 2019

Considering that the strength of this team is its defense, which delivered by far its worst effort of the season against the Saints in Week 14, those two injuries are highly concerning. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is just 12th in passing yards this year, so this club cannot count on him being able to win a shootout on a regular basis.

Don’t sleep on the Saints
The 49ers are not offering any value in this market. Bettors may want to roll with the Saints instead, despite their recent loss. New Orleans’ defense occasionally misfires, but the Drew Brees-Michael Thomas connection has been dangerous against all challengers this year.

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